Published Paper Details:

Agriculture remains the backbone of Indian economy, contributing approximately 17.8 per cent to Gross Domestic Product and supporting over 55 per cent of the population. This study investigates the "Paradox of Inputs", where massive investments in irrigation and fertilizers coexist with a continued statistical dependence on monsoon variability. Covering 23-year period (2000-01 to 2022-23), the study utilises descriptive statistics and two distinct multiple regression models to analyse food grain production and export drives. The study reveals a structural shift in production which surged by 68.8 per cent despite a nearly stagnant cultivated area. The regression analysis (R2 = 0.95) identifies average rainfall as the only individually significant predictor (beta = 0.072, p=0.03), while inputs like irrigation and fertilizers showed collective significance through ANOVA (F = 26.835) but individual inefficiency. This highlights a persistent vulnerability to climatic shifts. The paper concludes that India has transitioned to a yield-led growth phase, evidenced by the Rabi season's rising dominance. However, to achieve sustainable food security, policy must pivot from "quantity oriented" subsidies to "efficiency focused" technology. Recommendations include expanding micro-irrigation, adopting climate resilient crop varieties and enhancing export infrastructure to decouple production from monsoon reliance.