Published Paper Details:

Abstract The Climate change poses a serious threat to India's economic development through multiple channels: declining labor productivity, damage to infrastructure, loss in agricultural output, increased health burdens, and mounting adaptation costs. This paper assesses the projected economic losses to India under different emissions and warming scenarios, estimates the costs of adaptation and mitigation, and examines how these costs interact with development goals. We also analyze policy options that can help minimize these losses while supporting sustainable growth. Our findings suggest that under a high emissions scenario, India could face GDP losses of 20-25 per cent by 2070 and much higher by 2100. The cost of adapting to climate change by 2030 projected in the many trillions of rupees, imposing a substantial burden but also offering opportunities for innovation, resilience, and inclusive development. Climate change is already affecting India through rising temperatures, changing monsoon patterns, more frequent and severe extreme events, and slow-onset changes that undermine productivity and infrastructure. Using recent literature and institutional estimates, this paper synthesizes evidence on the channels through which climate change reduces output in agriculture, labor productivity, health, and infrastructure, and quantifies likely macroeconomic costs under plausible scenarios. The evidence suggests substantial short and long-term costs: sectoral losses (especially in agriculture and informal labor) and fiscal strains from disaster response and adaptation investments could reduce growth and push millions back into poverty if unaddressed. The article closes with prioritized policy responses-strengthening climate-resilient agriculture, expanding social protection, investing in nature-based solutions and cooling infrastructure, and mobilizing green finance.