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ISSN Approved Journal No: 2320-2882 | Impact factor: 7.97 | ESTD Year: 2013
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Published Paper Details:
Paper Title
Predictive Modeling of S&P 500 Market Direction Using Random Forest Classifier
Authors
Manish Kumar Gupta, Bhavya Dumra, Devyani Dadwal, Sadaf Fatima
Keywords
Stock Market Prediction, S&P 500, Random Forest, Machine Learning, Time Series, Financial Forecasting, Backtesting, OHLCV
Abstract
Abstract: This study explores the use of machine learning
techniques, focusing on the Random Forest Classifier, to predict
the directional shifts of the S&P 500 stock market index. The
research frames the problem as a binary classification challenge,
aiming to determine whether the market will rise or fall on
the subsequent day. By analyzing historical OHLCV (Open,
High, Low, Close, Volume) data collected over a period of
three decades, we evaluate the model's reliability and predictive
capabilities. The approach incorporates rolling-window backtesting, with performance assessed through precision and confusion
matrix metrics. Our results suggest that the Random Forest
model demonstrates competitive effectiveness, especially in low volatility environments, and establishes a solid foundation for
more sophisticated ensemble and hybrid methodologies.
IJCRT's Publication Details
Unique Identification Number - IJCRT2505321
Paper ID - 285523
Page Number(s) - c811-c817
Pubished in - Volume 13 | Issue 5 | May 2025
DOI (Digital Object Identifier) -
Publisher Name - IJCRT | www.ijcrt.org | ISSN : 2320-2882
E-ISSN Number - 2320-2882
Cite this article
Manish Kumar Gupta, Bhavya Dumra, Devyani Dadwal, Sadaf Fatima, "Predictive Modeling of S&P 500 Market Direction Using Random Forest Classifier", International Journal of Creative Research Thoughts (IJCRT), ISSN:2320-2882, Volume.13, Issue 5, pp.c811-c817, May 2025, Available at :http://www.ijcrt.org/papers/IJCRT2505321.pdf
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Submit Manuscript Online Impact Factor: 7.97 Review Results : Within 02-03 Days Paper Publication : Within 02-03 Days
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ISSN: 2320-2882 Impact Factor: 7.97 and ISSN APPROVED Journal Starting Year (ESTD) : 2013
ISSN and 7.97 Impact Factor Details
ISSN: 2320-2882 Impact Factor: 7.97 and ISSN APPROVED Journal Starting Year (ESTD) : 2013
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