Published Paper Details:

For over a century, oil has been the lifeblood of global power struggles, fueling wars, alliances, and economic upheavals. This paper delves into the intricate tapestry of oil geopolitics, from early 20th-century colonial scrambles to the resilient markets of Q1 2024. Blending historical narratives with cutting-edge quantitative insights--including production trends, demand forecasts, price volatility correlations, and advanced econometric models like wavelet quantile correlations and vector error correction--we uncover how OPEC's dominance, supply shocks, and energy transitions have reshaped the world. With a spotlight on India, a vulnerable giant that imports over 88% of its crude, we explore adaptations amid Russia-Ukraine sanctions, Middle East tensions, and renewable energy shifts. Drawing on EIA, IEA, and PPAC data up to March 2024, this analysis reveals a market evolving toward diversification and resilience, offering critical lessons for importers navigating an uncertain future.