Published Paper Details:

This paper presents the Consensus Propagation Theory of Market Movements (CPTMM), a comprehensive theoretical framework for understanding how shared beliefs evolve and drive significant market movements. Building upon George Soros's theory of reflexivity, CPTMM integrates insights from behavioral finance, narrative economics, and network theory to offer a novel perspective on market dynamics. The theory posits that market movements are fundamentally driven by the formation, propagation, and evolution of consensus beliefs, which interact reflexively with market prices. By emphasizing the dynamic and self-reinforcing nature of market narratives, CPTMM provides a theoretical basis for understanding phenomena such as bubble formation, market crashes, and the impact of social media on financial markets. This paper develops the core principles of CPTMM, explores its theoretical implications, and discusses potential applications for investors, regulators, and policymakers.