Published Paper Details:

Climate change is a significant driver of hydrological variability. Changes in rainfall intensity, distribution, and temperature can affect the relationship between precipitation and runoff. The sensitive nature of the Indian monsoon makes future water resource planning in India increasingly complex. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of climate change on water availability in river basins. Historical streamflow data from the selected basins, along with observed rainfall and temperature records from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), were analyzed to identify long-term trends. Correlation and regression analyses were used to quantify the relationships between rainfall, temperature, and streamflow. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to model baseline and projected scenarios. The results show a positive trend in both temperature and rainfall. The analysis revealed a strong dependence of streamflow on seasonal precipitation. Future simulations indicate that the timing and magnitude of rainfall and dry-season flow may change significantly by the 2050s. Alterations in the pattern and scale of water availability could pose challenges for irrigation scheduling and water management. The findings highlight the importance of incorporating climate projections into regional water-resource management strategies to enhance the adaptive capacity of river-basin systems.