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A Study of Macroeconomic and Financial Factors Influencing Gold and Silver Prices in India Using Advanced Econometric Techniques
Authors
Dr.Manoj Singh Negi
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Keywords
Gold prices, silver prices, Exchange rate, Inflation, VECM, Cointegration, India, Safe-haven assets
Abstract
This study examines how different macroeconomic and financial factors influence gold and silver prices in India over both the short run and the long run. The analysis is based on monthly data collected from January 2015 to March 2025. The study focuses on the impact of the USD/INR exchange rate, crude oil prices, inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and stock market performance represented by the S&P BSE Sensex.
The data is first tested for stationarity using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests. The findings indicate that all variables are non-stationary at their level values but become stationary after taking the first difference. Therefore, all variables are integrated of order one, I(1). The Johansen cointegration test confirms the existence of three long-run equilibrium relationships among the variables. A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is then estimated to examine both the short-run dynamics and the long-run relationships.
The results show that when the rupee becomes weak, gold prices increase a lot. The coefficient value is 0.88 (p < 0.01), which shows a strong positive effect. Inflation also increases gold prices, with a value of 0.55 (p < 0.01), showing that gold helps protect against rising prices.
On the other hand, the stock market (Sensex) has a negative effect on gold prices, with a value of -0.12 (p < 0.01). This means when the stock market goes up, gold prices may go down. Crude oil prices also have a positive effect on gold, with a value of 0.15 (p < 0.05).
The study also shows how prices return to balance. Gold prices adjust faster, and about 18% (ECT = -0.18, p < 0.01) of the imbalance is corrected in each period. But silver prices do not adjust much, with ECT = -0.05 (p = 0.581), which means silver prices mostly change due to new shocks.
In simple words, this research depict that gold is a good investment when inflation is high, the rupee is weak, or the stock market is unstable
IJCRT's Publication Details
Unique Identification Number - IJCRT2606684
Paper ID - 310819
Author type - Indian Author
Page Number(s) - g434-g447
Pubished in - Volume 14 | Issue 6 | June 2026
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No Of Downloads - 21
Author Country - India, 263139, Nainital, Nainital, 263139, Commerce All
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Dr.Manoj Singh Negi, "A Study of Macroeconomic and Financial Factors Influencing Gold and Silver Prices in India Using Advanced Econometric Techniques", International Journal of Creative Research Thoughts (IJCRT), ISSN:2320-2882, Volume.14, Issue 6, pp.g434-g447, June 2026, Available at :http://www.ijcrt.org/papers/IJCRT2606684.pdf
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