Published Paper Details:

Abstract: Global warming has become the most apparent threat to humanity on Earth. Under the worldwide warming mechanism, a set of equations is found between thermodynamic and dynamic components that can control the changes in the intensity and frequency of rainfall events over a region. Due to global warming, scientists widely expect these trends to pursue as the earth warms; for each degree of Celsius warming, the air extent of water vapor goes up by about 7 percent. Therefore, an atmosphere with more water vapor can generate more intense rainfall events. In this paper, the study investigates the variability of high-intensity rainfall events under the global warming scenario on an annual and seasonal basis in Ramgad Watershed, Kumaun Lesser Himalaya Uttarakhand, India, over the past fifty years. The study used the ground observed climatic data of the Automated Weather Station [AWS] of the Indian Meteorological Department situated in the watershed for the last 50 years. The result shows that the annual mean temperature of Ramgad Watershed is increased at the rate of 0.180C during the past fifty years while the study investigates the watershed recorded a progressively increasing trend in the events of high-intensity rainfall, overall, 123 high-intensity rainfall events with an increasing rate of 0.11% in the past fifty years. Furthermore, during the monsoon month, it has been observed that a considerably large proportion of high-intensity rainfall events fall in the category of severe rainfall events. At the same time, high-intensity rainfall events have shown a declining trend in the watershed during winter, summer, and post-monsoon seasons. The Study concluded that the increasing rate of mean annual and seasonal temperature over the watershed region has progressively increased the variabilities of high-intensity rainfall events, which emerged as the significant environmental ultimatum and diminishing the sustainability of the socio-ecological system and thus increasing the vulnerability of the population to water, food, and livelihood insecurity in rainfed and densely populated Lesser Himalayan Mountains.